How much will Norwegian hydropower cost in ?
Monte Carlo simulations suggest an average Norwegian power price of 39 ± 4 €/MWh in , and unlikely to slip below 23 €/MWh or exceed 50 €/MWh in normal weather years. Our results show that regulated hydropower will have a substantially higher market value than the average power price (value factor of 1.3–1.4).
What is the market value of Norwegian hydropower?
The market value of Norwegian hydropower is driven by the same parameters as the average Norwegian electricity prices, which is unsurprising since hydropower represents approximately 75% of the total Norwegian electricity production. The average market value for onshore wind in Norway is 32 ± 4 €/MWh, corresponding to a value factor of 0.80.
How much electricity does Norway produce in ?
In , Norway had an electricity production of 157 TWh, of which 91% was from hydropower, 8% from onshore wind, and <1% from thermal sources (NVE, 2021b). This shows that the Norwegian generation mix is already dominated by renewable energy. In normal weather years, Norway exports around 19 TWh of electricity to neighbouring countries.
Is solar PV a good option for the future Norwegian power market?
Solar PV has an average market value as low as 20 ± 3 €/MWh. Despite low LCOE estimates, solar PV does not look like an attractive option for the future Norwegian power market, given our model assumptions.
How does the development of electricity in Norway affect the economy?
The development of electricity prices and power flow in Norway is influenced by both consumption and production in Norway, and by how the market and system develop in the Nordic region and Europe. In addition, the development in Europe has a significant impact on technology costs and the development of Norwegian industry and business activities.
What is the range of technology costs based on Energistyrelsen ()?
The range of technology costs is based on Energistyrelsen (), and implemented as a change from the base values in Balmorel. Fuel price uncertainty is based on Chen et al. (2021a), but fuel price of biomass is based on extrapolation of historical variations from Energimyndigheten ().
Real time map that shows the power exchange and prices between the different price areas in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The pie chart shows the proportion of import and export of the total power exchange between Norway and other countries. Real time map that shows the power exchange and prices between the different price areas in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
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For example, the average household price (including grid and taxes, excluding one-time support) was about 134.9 øre/kWh. This breaks down as roughly 59.9 øre/kWh actual electricity energy cost, 36.0 øre/kWh for grid rent (transmission + distribution), and 39.0 øre/kWh in taxes.
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Real time map that shows the power exchange and prices between the different price areas in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
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This results in average prices throughout the year of 50-55 €/MWh in the Base scenario in all Norwegian price areas from and onwards, with a range of 35-70 €/MWh.
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The mean annual Norwegian power price from the Monte Carlo simulations is estimated to be 39 ± 4 €/MWh and long-term price levels below 23 €/MWh or above 50 €/MWh
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